TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF MORTALITY RATE DUE TO MALARIA IN NASARAWA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, NASARAWA STATE
Abstract
Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Nigeria, with Nasarawa State recording seasonal peaks in mortality despite control measures. This study analyzed malaria-related deaths in Nasarawa Local Government Area from 2015 to 2024 using time series methods. Secondary data were obtained from hospital records and state health reports. Descriptive statistics, seasonal decomposition, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were applied to examine patterns and forecast mortality trends. The results showed that malaria deaths follow a seasonal pattern, with higher mortality during and after the rainy season. The SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model provided the best fit and produced reliable forecasts, indicating continued seasonal fluctuations in 2025. These findings highlight the importance of anticipating high-risk months for effective intervention. The study concludes that time series modelling can serve as a valuable tool for malaria control planning and recommends stronger surveillance systems, timely resource allocation, and sustained preventive efforts to reduce malaria-related deaths in Nasarawa LGA.
Chapter One
Malaria remains one of the most formidable public health challenges in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Nigeria, which consistently records the highest global malaria burden. According to the (World Health Organization, 2023), Nigeria accounted for over 27% of global malaria cases and 31% of global malaria deaths in 2022. These figures underscore the magnitude of the problem and the urgent need for targeted interventions. While the country has implemented several control strategies such as the distribution of insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women (IPTp), and improved access to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) progress has been uneven across different states and regions. Multiple factors contribute to this uneven progress, including disparities in healthcare access, socio-cultural practices influencing net usage, variations in vector species and resistance patterns, and the impact of climatic conditions on transmission (WHO, 2023). The persistence of high mortality rates, especially in rural and semi-urban communities, points to the need for more localized and data-driven research approaches.
Project Details
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