Time Series Analysis on the reported Crime in Keffi Police Divisional office 2014 - 2024
Abstract
This study examined reported crimes in Keffi Police Divisional Office from 2014 to 2024 using time series analysis techniques including linear trend estimation, ARIMA modeling, and exponential smoothing. The main objective was to determine the nature of crime trends, forecast future values, and provide insights for security planning.The least squares trend equation Y=97.09−6.59tY = 97.09 - 6.59tY=97.09−6.59t revealed a general downward trend in reported crimes, indicating that, on average, crime levels decrease by about seven cases annually
Chapter One
Crime is an offence against the value system of a society. The causes and effect of crime vary among the various segment of the population and touch almost everyone by some degree and general as the economic growth and development of countries increase, it would be expected that crime level reduces.
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